Seven Questions about Today's Election
Duke experts discuss key aspects of the primary
Monday, May 5, 2008
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Durham, NC --
1. Will African-American support hurt Sen. Obama?
The enthusiastic turnout of African-American voters on Barack Obama’s behalf in the primaries and caucuses could backfire, leading to defections from some white supporters, according to a Duke University political scientist who studies race, politics and gender.
“I think these patterns are legitimate issues to raise in the campaign, as the Clinton camp has subtly and not-so-subtly done,” says Kerry L. Haynie, an associate professor of political science. “They speak to the issues of his viability and electability.”
Haynie is co-director of Duke’s Center for the Study of Race, Ethnicity, and Gender in the Social Sciences. He is also co-editor of the forthcoming book, “New Race Politics in America, Understanding Minority and Immigrant Politics.” According to Haynie, two historical patterns illustrate how and why race matters in the 2008 presidential election. He says the more African-American support Democratic candidates such as Obama receive, the greater the risk of them losing white supporters. He cites research showing that whites, especially low-income whites, are often less likely to vote for a Democratic candidate if he or she is identified with black voters. He says poll numbers indicate the Mississippi and Ohio primaries are examples of this pattern. For more, click here.
2. Can Sen. Obama appeal to working-class white voters?
That’s a key question for the campaign, say Duke political scientists, and will continue to be important if he goes on to the general election. In the Democratic primary, Duke political scientist David Rohde says Obama is struggling in part because of the “warm memories of former President Bill Clinton.”
“[Hillary Clinton is] doing better among the groups that she and her husband appealed best to,” Rohde told Bloomberg News.
Duke’s Kerry Haynie says Obama may not be able to make the connection with the white working-class voters. Haynie says despite campaigning on several working-class issues, Obama has not made it a central part of his effort.
“I don’t know how he does that,” Haynie told The Fayetteville Observer. “It’s not part of his core campaign message.”
However, political scientist Paula McClain says that Obama doesn’t have to win a majority of white voters to win the state.
“With a large black population in the state, in order for Clinton to take the primary she will have to take three out of every four of the white votes,” McClain told National Public Radio. “I don’t think she’s going to do that. … There are going to be a sizable number of whites who will vote for Obama, and combined with the black vote, he will win the primary. But this is North Carolina, so Sen. Obama’s race will be a factor for some individuals who are voting.”
3. What should the government do to reduce gas prices?
Nothing, says Michael Munger, chair of the Department of Political Science. As long as demand for gas remains high, so will the price, he says. The best way for people to spend less on gas is to drive less.
“The main need of real people right now is to find a way to increase the fuel efficiency of their transportation,” Munger wrote in an April 27 column in the DurhamHerald-Sun. “High prices reflect increased scarcity. We need to react quickly, not slow things down by forcing prices downward. I'm not a fan of gas taxes, or other excise taxes as a way of coercing behavior the government happens to admire. But I'm also opposed, for the same reasons, to subsidies that keep gas prices artificially low, and enable behavior we abhor.
The U.S. has huge corporate tax giveaways built into our tax codes, in the form of oil depletion allowances and accelerated depreciation on capital stock in drilling and exploration. And thousands of our young men and women are fighting and dying in a war in a region whose only strategic significance is its hold on our oil supply.
So … to all of you wanting to know how the state is going to support your addiction to driving inefficient, polluting moving mountains of iron and plastic: Get over it. There is nothing anyone can do. In fact, there is nothing anyone should do.”
Munger is running for governor this year as the Libertarian Party candidate. For more from the column, click here.
4. What challenges in Iraq face the next president?
Bruce Jentleson, a professor and foreign policy expert at the Sanford Institute, says the military “surge” in Iraq is bringing diminishing returns. The next president, he says, will have to turn to diplomacy to build a more solid foundation for rebuilding Iraqi society.
“Little more can be achieved and much is at risk by continued massive American military presence in Iraq. We need to shift from a military to a diplomatic surge,” Jentleson wrote in a column in The News and Observer. “This means drawing down our troops -- carefully, responsibly, strategically -- while building up our diplomatic initiatives -- globally, regionally and within Iraq. The goals remain the same: as much internal stabilization as possible, and regional containment of the conflict from drawing in and spreading to other states. But the strategy needs to change.”
For more from Jentleson’s column, click here.
Peter Feaver sees the politics of the Iraq war as being a major division in the general election.
“The Democrats are focusing on the opportunity costs of staying, and the Republicans are focusing on the costs of leaving,” says Peter Feaver, a political scientist at Duke who formerly served on the National Security Council in the Bush administration.
5. Will the environment play a role in the voter’s choices?
All three of the major parties’ presidential candidates are looking at policies that could cap greenhouse emissions. Tim Profeta, director of Duke’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, says any such cap would particularly affect North Carolina because of its reliance on cheap energy in comparison to other states. It would mean a significant change in how the state produces energy, but it would also mean more investment in cleaner technologies, he says.
6. How will the comments of Rev. Wright affect the election?
Several Duke faculty members said Sen. Obama was hurt politically by both the comments about the United States made by his former pastor and Wright’s efforts last week to defend those comments. However, a Divinity School professor says part of the drama is a generational difference among African-American leaders. J. Kameron Carter, associate professor of Theology and Black Church Studies at Duke Divinity School, told The News and Observer that many African-Americans grew up listening to fiery denunciations common in the black church. But many also hope for the vision of reconciliation that Obama offers, Carter says.
“What we're witnessing is a generation that’s lived into the benefits of the work carried out by the previous generation, carrying the mantle forward,” Carter says.
7. What do youth think about the election?
Watch ABC News tonight and find out. Two Duke undergraduates, Kelly Teagarden ’08 and Adam Nathan ’10, will represent Duke tonight as part of ABC News Now presidential race election coverage. The news station asked two Duke students and two Indiana University students to participate in a question and answer session about young people’s voting patterns in the two state primaries. They will appear on camera on the Duke campus and be interviewed by ABC News hosts using cell phones.
Teagarden, a Durham native, volunteered for the Obama campaign in both North and South Carolina. Nathan, who is from New Jersey, is president of Duke Students for Hillary. Both students are Program II majors. Teagarden designed her major to focus on human rights. Nathan is choosing interdisciplinary curriculum dealing with leaders and change in the developing world.
The interviews are scheduled to be aired Tuesday between 8:15 p.m. and 9:15 p.m.
For more, click here.

