Lower HIV Estimate Should Not Detract From World AIDS Day

Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Durham, NC -- Last week, UNAIDS and World Health Organization (WHO) released a report saying they had previously overestimated the number of people infected with the HIV virus. But such news should not take away from Saturday’s World AIDS Day and its focus on care and prevention, says the director of Duke University’s Global Health Institute.

“The reduction in the UNAIDS numbers reflects less on the actual course of the epidemic than on the change in methodology used by UNAIDS and WHO to gather data,” said Michael H. Merson, who headed the WHO’s Global Program on AIDS from 1990 to 1995. “No one really knows how many people are infected with HIV; the epidemic affects so many people in so many countries that a precise count can never be made.”

The new report lowered the worldwide estimate of people living with HIV/AIDS from 39.5 million to 33.2 million.

“Whether there are 40 million or 33 million persons currently infected with the HIV virus, the pandemic continues to cause untold suffering in the world,” Merson said. “The real message of the UNAIDS 2007 Report on AIDS is that HIV/AIDS continues to be a major global health issue, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where three-quarters of the deaths from AIDS have occurred.”

What is encouraging about the numbers in the report, Merson said, is that trends suggest HIV-prevention efforts are having an impact in several of the most affected countries.

“With more than 6,800 new infections each day, we can never beat the disease through medical treatment alone,” he said. “We must continue research for a cure or a vaccine, and also to find more effective ways to promote prevention and reduce transmission.”