The entering class also will be Duke’s most diverse in terms of ethnicity, with the percentage of students of color increasing to 40 percent from last year’s record of 37 percent.

“When we look at the combination of the six criteria we typically rate in applications (strength of curriculum, grades, standardized test scores, recommendations and interviews, extracurricular activities and the application essays), at this point the overall quality of this year’s entering class is essentially the same as last year’s,” Guttentag wrote.

“Under the circumstances, it is a confirmation of Duke’s enduring reputation that our yield this year remains within that range,” Guttentag wrote. According to the latest statistics, the university is seeing roughly a 5 percent decrease in the percentage of both white and African-American students accepting offers of admission, but no decrease among Latino and Asian students. The decrease is evenly split between men and women, who will each comprise roughly 50 percent of the new class. Among the top 300 applicants, the percentage enrolling at Duke is about the same as it was last year. Enrollment increases are expected in international students.

As a result of the decrease in yield, Guttentag said he anticipates enrolling about 125 more students than expected from the waiting list to fill the 1,665 places in the class that will enter this fall. Students accepted from the waiting list “are as outstanding in their overall quality, as measured by test scores and other criteria, as the entering class as a whole,” Guttentag said. “Indeed, we regretted not having spots for them in the first place.”

Saying he has not received much feedback from admitted students about the lacrosse situation, Guttentag speculated in an interview that the intense news coverage “probably caused some students to have second thoughts about coming here.” He said the Office of Undergraduate Admissions will participate in research over the summer to learn more about the factors affecting student decisions.

A copy of Guttentag's memo to Lange follows below:

_ _ _ _

TO: Peter Lange

FROM: Christoph Guttentag

DATE: May 24, 2006

SUBJECT: Undergraduate Admissions update

With the conclusion of the main part of the admissions process in sight, I thought it would be helpful for you to have an update of the process to this point.

Overall we have had a very successful year. We received a record number of applications, almost 19,400, exceeding last year’s total -- itself a record -- by 1,300 applicants. We set records in both Trinity and Pratt, for every racial group, for international students, and for applicants from the Carolinas.

This will also be the most selective year for undergraduate admissions in Duke’s history -- certainly as far back as we have Admissions Office records, which go back to the late 1950s. We will end up having admitted only 21 percent of our applicants this year, a slight improvement over last year’s 22 percent admit rate. This continues the increasing selectivity we’ve seen each year over the last ten years. Similarly, I expect this year’s average SAT scores for admitted students to be near or equal to last year’s average.

With the expansion of the Pratt School of Engineering, this is the second year we are looking to enroll between 1,650 and 1,680 first year students in Trinity and Pratt combined, and we will meet that goal again this year. Fortunately we will not find ourselves 60 students over-enrolled as we did last year.

Since we are still receiving responses from students admitted from the waiting list, and expect to experience some “summer melt” as usual, I can’t yet provide precise enrollment data for the incoming class. However, when we look at the combination of the six criteria we typically rate in applications (strength of curriculum, grades, standardized test scores, recommendations and interviews, extracurricular activities, and the application essays), at this point the overall quality of this year’s entering class is essentially the same as last year’s (it’s actually marginally stronger statistically, but not by a meaningful amount). I expect that when the process concludes we will enroll more international students than last year, comprising about 7% of the class. The percentage of students from the Carolinas will again exceed 15%, and the percentage of students of color will increase to about 40%, exceeding last year’s record of 37%.

At the same time, I don’t think it will come as a surprise that the consistent news coverage related to the men’s lacrosse team seems to have had some effect on the number of students accepting our offer of admission. The recent controversy unfolded just as applicants were deciding where to attend college next year. By the time the admissions process concludes I expect our yield -- the percentage of students accepting our offer of admission -- to decrease somewhat from last year’s 43 percent, to between 40 and 41 percent. We have seen a decrease of about 5 percent among both white and African-American students, but no decrease in yield among Latino and Asian students. We did see a larger decrease among students admitted to the Pratt School than among those admitted to Trinity College, and an equal decrease for both women and men. In fact, our current enrollment is divided almost exactly evenly between women and men. We have seen no significant difference in yield among our top 300 applicants compared to last year. The enrollment model we’ve been using for the last several years consistently assumes that we will be able to enroll roughly 50 students from the waiting list; this year we expect to enroll an additional 125 students from the waiting list. We placed nearly 900 students on our active waiting list this year and, as you know, those who end up coming to Duke are as outstanding in their overall quality, as measured by test scores and other criteria, as the entering class as a whole. Indeed, we regretted not having spots for them in the first place.