Bending to Make Korean Talks Succeed
To get the North's Kim Jong Il to give up his nuclear program, the United States should assure the regime's survival
Thursday, August 28, 2003
By Sung-Min Jang
Center for International Studies
Few people expect this week's six-party talks on the North Korean nuclear program to achieve a lasting peace. But bold action by the United States may yield results beyond expectations.
As with the proposed road map to peace in the Middle East, the Bush administration needs to suggest a road map to a nuclear-free peninsula that prohibits North Korea from developing nuclear weapons. In return, the United States must satisfy some of North Korea's basic demands, including financial incentives and a clear guarantee of regime security in North Korea.
Should such an agreement be reached, it is important to North Korea that any announcement declaring a freeze of its nuclear development program be made simultaneously with a U.S. guarantee that the current North Korean regime will remain in power.
Next, an inspection team made up of representatives from five of the participating nations -- the United States, South Korea, Japan, Russia and China -- should be formed to verify the dismantlement. At the same time, a detailed North Korean aid program of economic support, energy and food assistance must be presented and implemented. The new aid plans must be at a similar level to the Geneva framework agreed upon in1994.
The parties also should pursue the normalization of diplomatic relations between the United States and North Korea and between Japan and North Korea. This would allow the nations to resolve a number of bilateral issues and keep open lines of communication for the future.
Finally, the United States must make a genuine gesture that a nonaggression treaty, whatever form it may take, be established between it and North Korea.
If these demands aren't satisfied, North Korea will not trust the United States and will eventually abandon these efforts. Further, it will try to buy as much time as possible, hoping that a Democratic president will win next year's election.
North Korea and the United States are fighting their own battles with time: North Korea to avoid economic isolation in the international community, and the United States to prevent North Korea from developing nuclear weapons.
If North Korea should fail in the nuclear negotiations and if President Bush is re-elected, North Korea would be more susceptible to military strikes from the United States. For Kim Jong Il, this would mean the collapse of his regime.
Conversely, the Bush administration could be haunted if the United States should fail in nuclear negotiations and North Korea should declare the completion of its nuclear development prior to the American presidential election.
For that reason, the six-way talks in Beijing are important, even if they bear no fruit other than a promise for future talks.
Once the North Korean government has fully abandoned its nuclear program, Bush ought to personally invite Kim Jong Il to the White House to discuss the normalization of diplomatic relations between the United States and North Korea.
This gesture, which would essentially ensure regime survival, could be followed up with talks between the two leaders. Then, Kim Jong Il could visit both South Korea and Japan, and the North Korean nuclear issue finally could be resolved.
This article originally appeared in the Aug. 20 News and Observer
