News Tip: Casualties in Iraq Not Yet Eroding Support for Mission
Two Duke political scientists say U.S. public support for the mission in Iraq remains strong despite mounting casualties, but President Bush must work quickly to improve morale among soldiers
Monday, July 21, 2003
Public support for the mission in Iraq remains strong despite mounting casualties, but President Bush must work quickly to improve morale among soldiers and focus on the administration's successes, say two Duke University political scientists.
Political science professors Peter D. Feaver and Christopher Gelpi are co-authors of a forthcoming book on civilian and military attitudes toward war and casualties, "Choosing Your Battles," which will be published by Princeton University Press this fall.
The public will tolerate casualties as long as it considers the mission important for American national interests and the best possible alternative. It is also important for the president to show continued resolve and convince the public that the mission will ultimately be successful, Feaver and Gelpi said.
"The other vulnerability is military morale. In the past decade, the American military has developed a fairly high degree of casualty aversion," said Gelpi, whose primary research interests are international militarized conflict and strategies for international conflict resolution. "The reports of morale problems among the units that have been deployed the longest are worrisome and the underlying cause should be addressed urgently."
However, Feaver added: "The worst thing the president could do is to read the headlines, panic and ask the military to hunker down or get out quickly. That would be catastrophic, both in terms of policy but especially in terms of politics and public opinion."
More than 30 U.S. soldiers have died, including three in the past two days, in attacks and ambushes since President Bush declared an end to major combat May 1, leading to a drop in his approval rating. But people should distinguish between support for the president and support for the mission in Iraq, Gelpi and Feaver said.
"Support for the president matters for re-election, whereas support for the mission matters for the ability of the U.S. to sustain the mission in Iraq," Gelpi said. "Because the public understands that there is no alternative to U.S. presence in Iraq -- we cannot simply cut and run just because the reconstruction phase is proving tougher than expected -- the former can drop without the latter moving much."
To shore up his polling numbers, Bush should be "more concerned about delivering success than in stopping the drip-drip-drip of casualties," said Feaver, who is also director of the Triangle Institute for Security Studies, an interdisciplinary consortium sponsored by Duke, N.C. State University and the University of North Carolina. "The public is defeat phobic, not casualty phobic." The administration needs to teach the public about its successes, such as explaining that many regions in Iraq are stable and have improved public services.
"The American public recognizes that things are not going well, but still believes we can ultimately be successful in Iraq," Feaver said. "So far, the Bush administration has communicated this same message of resolve. So long as the president is not panicking at the sight of casualties, neither will the public."
Feaver can be reached for additional comment at (919) 660-4331 or by email. Gelpi can be reached for additional comment at (919) 660-4318 or by email.
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