News Tip: Turkey May Reconsider U.S. Request for Deployment, Duke Expert Says
The March 9 election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the Turkish Parliament could prompt Turkey to reconsider its earlier stance
Monday, March 10, 2003
The March 9 election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the Turkish Parliament could prompt Turkey to reconsider the United States' request to deploy ground troops, planes and helicopters from Turkey in a U.S.-led war against Iraq, says a Duke University professor who spent months in Turkey researching a book about U.S.-Turkish relations.
"Three interrelated factors will determine Turkey's next response to the U.S. request: 1) How soon Erdogan will form a new government; 2) the results of the UN Security Council vote on the U.S./UK/Spanish resolution that is expected later this week; and 3) satisfaction of Erdogan's desire for clarification of Turkey's role in shaping Iraq's future -- particularly its fears of an independent Kurdish state," says Bruce Kuniholm, a professor of history and public policy studies at Duke.
Kuniholm has worked on the U.S. Department of State's Bureau of Intelligence and Research and Policy Planning Staff, and served as a consultant for the U.S. Army, Marine Corps, the United Technologies Corp. and Norwegian Nobel Institute. His research has focused mainly on diplomatic history and U.S. foreign policy in the Near and Middle East.
Kuniholm said there were many good reasons for Turkey to initially reject the U.S. request. "Roughly 90 percent of Turkey's population opposed what they saw as a war against a Muslim neighbor, a war that risked the wrath of a tyrant who possessed weapons of mass destruction and who had sworn to retaliate against those who assisted the United States. Turks also remembered that in 1990-91, President Turgut Ozal, without parliamentary approval, had taken the unpopular position of closing Iraq's oil pipeline through Turkey, allowing the U.S. to use the Incirlik air base for bombing Iraq, and forcing Iraq to contemplate the possibility of a second front.
"While Turkey subsequently received some assistance from the U.S. (congressional opposition prevented the government from honoring all of its commitments) as well as from foreign governments, this assistance in no way covered the costs resulting from the war."
Even more problematic, says Kuniholm, is Turkey's concerns for protecting its borders -- including the fear that an autonomous Kurdish entity would seek independence and threaten the integrity of the Turkish state.
But there is also reason for Turkey to support the U.S., Kuniholm notes. Since World War II, the United States has been Turkey's most important ally. The U.S. also has given strong support to Turkey's desire for accession to the European Union, and been instrumental in facilitating assistance that helped address Turkey's recent economic crises.
"Moreover, the U.S. was prepared to provide it with a reported $6 billion in grants ($2 billion in military assistance, and $4 billion in economic assistance), the economic portion of which would leverage additional loans that would help the Turks withstand the affects of a war that would otherwise devastate its economy," Kuniholm said.
Kuniholm's first book, "The Origins of the Cold War in the Near East: Great Power Conflict and Diplomacy in Iran, Turkey and Greece," won the Stuart Bernath Prize from the Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations. He has written other books on the Palestinian problem, U.S. policy in the Persian Gulf, and Greek-Turkish relations.
Kuniholm can be reached for further comment at (919) 613-7341, or bruce.kuniholm@duke.edu.
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