Peter Feaver: Different Medicines for Different Maladies
The seemingly analogous cases of Iraq and North Korea involve very different calculations once one gets to the nitty-gritty of costs and benefits
Friday, January 17, 2003
Now the critics are lambasting the president precisely because
he is taking differentiated steps in response to Iraq and North
Korea. In other words, because he is not mindlessly using a
one-size-fits-all foreign policy.
Yet even opportunistic critics can raise
serious questions. Why propose war in response to Iraq's ambitions
to acquire weapons of mass destruction while proposing containment
in response to North Korea's? Does good foreign policy require the
Bush administration to treat both nations the same?
The answer is no. A good foreign policy should recognize
linkages across issue areas because, in the real world, one cannot
deal with issues in total isolation. But a rigid doctrine that
prescribes the same medicine in the same dosages to every global
malady is hardly good foreign policy.
Consider how the seemingly analogous cases of Iraq and North
Korea involve very different calculations once one gets to the
nitty-gritty of costs and benefits.
Iraq harbors revisionist geopolitical goals; it has gone to war
several times in the past 25 years to redraw local boundaries. It
is seeking weapons of mass destruction as a shield behind which to
reach regional supremacy.
The United States has inhibited Iraq from reaching the first
goal through a vigorous policy of containment, but that policy
would be undermined if Iraq succeeds in its second goal. Iraqi
nuclear weapons would pose a considerable deterrent threat, perhaps
enough to neutralize the deterrent the United States was trying to
mount against Iraq. Even our current conventional war plans would
be undermined, for it is doubtful the United States could move the
necessary forces into the theater if Iraq could threaten the ports
and bases with nuclear weapons.
Faced with Iraqi nuclear weapons, the United States would have
to deploy a permanent in-theater conventional deterrent, as we did
against the Warsaw Pact in Europe for 50 years (and still do in
Korea). Can fragile societies such as Saudi Arabia tolerate a large
permanent presence of U.S. troops on their soil or would that
produce the very catastrophic upheaval some assert even a brief and
successful war would generate? Recall that al-Qaeda was formed in
response to the semi-permanent presence of much smaller U.S. forces
deployed to Saudi Arabia to carry out the no-fly zone.
Moreover, if critics are right and Iraq is such an ethnic
tinderbox that toppling Saddam Hussein by force would leave a
Yugoslavia-style mess, then that mess would arise if he is toppled
by natural causes. Does anyone really think that the United States
could stay out of a bloody ethnic civil war in Iraq? Leave aside
the morality of it -- the pacifists and isolationists seem not to
be bothered by our sins of omission in Rwanda, Sudan or now in
Congo. It is simply not strategically plausible that the United
States could ignore such upheaval so close to the crucial global
oil lifeline.
Weighing costs
In other words, not going to war in Iraq produces most of the
same costs as going to war and few of the benefits. And, the costs
of war mount exponentially once Iraq has crossed the nuclear
threshold, so war is a plausible option only in advance.
North Korea proves this latter point rather dramatically.
North Korea harbors revisionist goals -- it claims to want a
unified Korea under Northern dominance -- and it has a robust
weapons of mass destruction program. It probably developed nuclear
weapons early in President Clinton's first term and has recently
admitted that it never abandoned its nuclear program -- despite
promising the Clinton administration that it would in exchange for
substantial financial incentives. Unlike Iraq, which is desperately
hiding its WMD ambitions, North Korea is flaunting its desire to
expand its arsenal and going to extraordinary lengths to stick its
thumb in the United Nations' eye.
If costs and benefits did not matter, if foreign policy were
nothing more than the mindless application of legalistic standards,
then North Korea would deserve a more solid thumping than Iraq. But
costs and benefits do matter, and they cut the other way.
North Korea's revisionist goals are effectively deterred by the
permanent presence of several divisions worth of U.S. troops. South
Korea (unlike Saudi Arabia or Kuwait) can mount a more effective
deterrent itself-- after all, it is larger and many times richer
than North Korea.
Containment has worked for more than 50 years on the Korean
peninsula, and this would not change even if North Korea's nuclear
arsenal expanded. But containment is also working on the other
side. North Korea can credibly threaten unacceptable damage to
South Korea -- perhaps hundreds of thousands of casualties in Seoul
alone within the first few hours of a war -- making pre-emptive war
prohibitively expensive.
Differences make sense
The real threat is that North Korea sells everything it builds,
and it might do that with nuclear weapons. This is grounds enough
to be worried, but is it grounds for risking hundreds of thousands
of allied deaths? Maybe, just maybe, if North Korea is stupid
enough to sell nuclear weapons to a terrorist organization such as
al-Qaeda. Otherwise, the costs of war far exceed the plausible
benefits. And, at least for the foreseeable future, the costs of
war far exceed the costs of not going to war.
It makes sense, then, to treat North Korea and Iraq differently,
even if it opens the United States up to opportunistic
criticism.
Of course, the hawks in the Bush administration engaged in their
own opportunistic punditry on these issues, back in the 1990s when
their only outlet was the op-ed pages. Then, they railed against
the Clinton administration's appeasement of North Korea, predicting
it would only encourage the North Korean regime to pursue WMD. The
Bush hawks were correct, but they did not concede -- not until
recently, anyway -- that once Clinton allowed the North Koreans to
cross the nuclear threshold, there were no viable alternatives to
seeking some sort of accommodation.
In that sense, the glee with which Democrats hoist the Bush team on its own petard is understandable. Clinton-Gore officials had to take their lumps, and we should not begrudge them an opportunity to dish some out now. But neither should we let them mislead us as to the desirability of faux consistency in the face of very different challenges.
This article originally appeared in the Jan. 12 (Raleigh) News and Observer.



